Proof: two plots, one question each
We ran TerraVest on two plots for a GCC municipality. For each, the owner supplied a plot reference, a location, an intention and a business question. The AI did the rest, and people reviewed every result.
POC run, illustrative figures
Plot A · residential
- Plot area
- 56,285 sq ft
- Envelope
- GFA 132,215 sq ft · FAR 2.35 · up to 14 floors
What the owner gave the AI
- Plot reference
- Plot A (anonymised reference)
- Location
- Established residential district, GCC city
- Stated intention
- Bring the plot to market for private development
- Business question
- What is the highest and best use, and is it worth taking to investors?
Nothing else.
What the AI derived
| Field | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Plot area | 56,285 sq ft | AI Retrieved |
| Planning envelope | GFA 132,215 sq ft · FAR 2.35 | Actual Source |
| Height limit | Up to 14 floors | Actual Source |
| Envelope check | Plot area × FAR matches permitted GFA | Calculated |
| Field | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Scenarios generated | 4 uses tested | AI Scenario |
| Residential sale-price evidence | Comparable transactions, blended rate | AI Estimate |
| Construction cost basis | Benchmark rates plus contingency | AI Estimate |
| Gross development value | AED 595.0M – 661.1M | Calculated |
| Land value basis | To be confirmed by valuer | Requires confirmation |
Scenarios compared
4 scenarios tested
| Scenario | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Villas | Uses a small share of the permitted GFA |
| Mid-density residential | Leaves permitted GFA unused |
| Hotel | Higher operating risk and a longer route to stable income |
| Full-GFA residentialPreferred | 96 residences; strongest return on the permitted envelope |
Returns
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross development value (GDV) | AED 595.0 – 661.1M |
| Total development cost (TDC) | AED 453.0 – 457.3M |
| Profit | AED 143.0 – 206.3M |
| Return on cost (ROC) | 32–45% |
| Margin | 24–31% |
| Project IRR | 21.3% |
| NPV at 12% | AED 62.0M |
| Peak funding | AED 327.2M |
The recommendation
Proceed to detailed concept optimisation
What still needs confirmation
- Requires confirmationLand value basis, to be confirmed by an independent valuer
- Requires confirmationSale-price evidence, to be refreshed with current transactions
- Requires confirmationConstruction cost rates, to be validated by a quantity surveyor
- Requires confirmationUnit mix and sizes, to be tested in concept design
We keep this list in on purpose. A recommendation is only as good as the evidence behind it.
Plot B · commercial
- Plot area
- 50,870 sq ft
- Envelope
- GFA 256,000 sq ft · FAR 5.03 · G+29
What the owner gave the AI
- Plot reference
- Plot B (anonymised reference)
- Location
- Commercial corridor, GCC city
- Stated intention
- Offer the plot to private investors
- Business question
- Which commercial scheme gives the best risk-adjusted return?
Nothing else.
What the AI derived
| Field | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Plot area | 50,870 sq ft | AI Retrieved |
| Planning envelope | GFA 256,000 sq ft · FAR 5.03 | Actual Source |
| Height limit | G+29 | Actual Source |
| Sellable area | 209,918 sq ft at ~82% efficiency | Calculated |
| Field | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Scenarios generated | 3 commercial schemes | AI Scenario |
| Blended sale price | AED 3,700 per sq ft | AI Estimate |
| Construction cost basis | Benchmark rates plus contingency | AI Estimate |
| Gross development value | AED 776.7M | Calculated |
| Strata sales absorption | To be confirmed with market testing | Requires confirmation |
Scenarios compared
3 scenarios tested
| Scenario | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Single-office hold | Capital tied up longer; return depends on leasing |
| Strata sellPreferred | 122 office and retail units, sale-led; highest IRR |
| Hybrid | Partial hold lowers return on capital |
Returns
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross development value (GDV) | AED 776.7M |
| Total development cost (TDC)From an earlier run, to be confirmed | AED 555.7M |
| ProfitFrom an earlier run, to be confirmed | AED 221.0M (pre-tax) |
| Return on cost (ROC)From an earlier run, to be confirmed | 39.8% |
| Margin | 27.9%low case, hurdle 15% |
| Project IRR | 24.3%hurdle 12% |
| NPV at 12% | AED 87.3M |
| Peak fundingFrom an earlier run, to be confirmed | AED 310.6M |
| Residual land value vs land value | AED 291.9M vs AED 230.7M |
The recommendation
Proceed to investment review
What still needs confirmation
- Requires confirmationBlended sale price, to be refreshed with current strata transactions
- Requires confirmationSales absorption and phasing, to be tested with the market
- Requires confirmationConstruction cost rates, to be validated by a quantity surveyor
- Requires confirmationTax treatment of profit, to be confirmed with advisers
We keep this list in on purpose. A recommendation is only as good as the evidence behind it.
The evidence rule
Every figure is traceable. Each value carries the same chain, so a reviewer can follow it back to its source.
- Value
- Formula
- Inputs
- Source
- Date
- Confidence
- Status
Worked example: GDV for Plot B
POC run, illustrative figures- Value
- AED 776.7M
- Formula
- Sellable area × blended sale price
- Inputs
- 209,918 sq ft sellable (256,000 sq ft GFA × 82% efficiency) × AED 3,700 per sq ft
- Source
- Sale price: comparable strata transactions. Sellable area: permitted GFA × efficiency.
- Date
- Date of the POC run
- Confidence
- Medium: price evidence is estimated, area is calculated
- Status
- Requires confirmation
